About Predictions Gone Wrong

The head of the United States Patent Office, Charles Duell, is credited with arguing in 1899 to close the Patent Office because “everything that could have been invented, has been invented.”

In the early 1940s, IBM’s president, Thomas J Watson, reputedly said: “I think there is a world market for about five computers.”

Jon Corzine, then-CEO of MF Global, in a company-wide email after a downgrade by Moody’s wrote in late October 2011: “While I am disappointed by this action, it bears no implications for our clients or the strategic direction of MF Global.” And: “The sun will come up tomorrow.”

In July 2012, one can read in an article in FXWeek that “The flurry of new trading platforms that have launched in the foreign exchange market in recent months is unsustainable …and will undoubtedly lead to further consolidation as the successful ventures are acquired and the unsuccessful ones are pushed out of the market, according to speakers at the FX Week USA conference in New York last week”.

Leaprate.com echoed this sentiment stating that “It is also hard to believe that all these firms will each build up enough volume to create worthwhile businesses.”

If you started out chuckling about how woefully shortsighted some people were in previous centuries, you can tell by now that we have comfortably arrived in the present and the current discussion about the proliferation of FX platforms. Are you still smiling? I am not. It baffles me to read story after story about ‘platform proliferation’ as a result of a measly 6 new ones that were announced by a variety of industry participants in the last 2 months. In that time frame, Integral alone launches that many and more on behalf of its customers. Continue reading About Predictions Gone Wrong

The Top 10 Reasons Why Competing in The Olympic Games is Like Just Another Day Trading FX

The Olympic Spirit is alive in FX Markets. There are more than just a few similarities between what is happening in London and developments in global FX markets. Consider a few key characteristics and draw your own conclusion.

Reason #10: Foul play can lead to disqualification

London 2012: A Swiss and a Greek athlete sent home for racist tweets, other athletes leaving suddenly due to ‘illness’ that is rumored to be linked to doping

FX Markets: Google CFTC and enforcement or go here: http://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/Enforcement/EnforcementActions/index.htm

Reason #9: Audience participation

London 2012: In many venues, many seats are empty and emergency measures are in place to fill them

FX Markets: Semi-annual survey data for FX spot shows that here also, volumes are down in double-digit numbers in key arenas

Continue reading The Top 10 Reasons Why Competing in The Olympic Games is Like Just Another Day Trading FX